This week the cancer barons published their American cancer guesstimates for 2009.

I am of course referring to the ACS(1) cancer figures which are 'estimated' in conjunction with the NCI(2). The numbers were published this week, around May 6. The numbers arrived rather late this year. The 'estimates' are here [stored]. Let us have a systematic look at them. We are of course interested in lung cancer guesstimates, which are found on page 4.

Death estimates.

First we will peek at the 'estimates' of lung cancer deaths. This year's tally would run up in 159.390 deaths. This is a trifle lower than last years 'estimate'. Given that the number of cigarettes consumed today is about the same as in 1950 (about 370 billion) and that the number of lung cancer deaths in 1950 was about 20.000, we see that there is an indescretion of 800% to the claim that 'smoking causes lung cancer'. Everybody is totally brainwashed with the idea that 'smoking causes lung cancer'. An error margin of 800% does not matter. That is the power of propaganda for you. Suffice to say that in the US, the annual death toll from lung cancer is around 160.000.

Incidence estimates.

The number of 'estimated' new lung cancer cases is an entirely different number. The number of new cases is 'estimated' to be a whopping 219.440. That is about 4.000 more than last year, an increase of 2%.

These 'estimates' have zoomed up in the past couple of years. Apparently this is due in part to revised methods of 'estimation'. One has to wonder what is going on in American hospitals. Is there a sudden and unexpected influx of new lung cancer patients? We have no idea. But remember, the numbers are 'estimates'. What is clearly suspicious is that in spite of a considerable drop in cigarette consumption in America since 1981, the 'estimates' of new lung cancer cases are flying sky high. One has to wonder whether the ACS and NCI believe that smoking can cause lung cancer.

California.

It is always interesting to poke at the State of California. Sacramento, California is the world capital of prohibition. Tobacco Control has turned California into the American Soviet State.

This year, the 'estimates' for new cases of lung cancer are 17.910. Last year the guesstimate was 18.060 new lung cancer cases. So why are the numbers 150 lower than last year? We don't know. Rest assured that the ACS and NCI don't know either.

Implications.

Nobody really knows what causes lung cancer. It is possible that smoking could be a contributer to lung cancer. But given the absolute lack of correlation between cigarette sales and lung cancer deaths, it is completely impossible for smoking to be a major cause of lung cancer.

Tobacco Control is a gigantic public relations stunt. It is the health equivalent of an economic Ponzi scheme. The basis for this Ponzi scheme is a statistical association. As lung cancer grows in the face of dropping cigarette consumption, so the absurd claims of Tobacco Control go wilder and wilder. For each year that the idiotic 'smoking cessation programs' fail to deliver any reduction in lung cancer, the Tobacco Control maniacs make more promises and beg more grants. The absurdity is so bizarre that Tobacco Control goons are beginning to claim that smoking must have grown more 'dangerous' due to changes in cigarette production. It does not occur to anybody except for a silenced minority that the obvious explanation is that smoking isn't a major cause of lung cancer. That is, if smoking is at all such a cause.

From a strictly demagogical point of view, the anti-smoking crusade has been a resounding success. Almost everybody believes that smoking 'causes 90 % of all lung cancer'. It is a remarkable piece of indoctrination.

From a material point of view Tobacco Control is a resounding failure. It has achieved absolutely nothing in terms of reducing the occurrance of lung cancer. In fact, since 1950, it has achieved the exact opposite of what it has promised. Tobacco Control consists of a pride of liars, whipping a dead horse.

It is materially irrelevant whether 'everybody' believes that smoking causes lung cancer. It is beside the point whether 99% or 1% of doctors believe that smoking causes lung cancer. Lung cancer does not believe that it is caused by smoking. Lung cancer cannot be brainwashed or indoctrinated. Lung cancer lives in the material world, not in the artificial thought clouds of propagandists. Lung cancer does not have a brain that can be indoctrinated.

All there is to say is keep on smoking. One day we will settle the score. It will not be pretty. Let us hope that it will at least be just.


1. American Cancer Society

2. National Cancer Institute